Valentin GUYE

Valentin is an economics researcher at INRAE, the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment. He is based in the Center for Environmental Economics of Montpellier. Before that, he did a postdoc at UCLouvain, as part of the Sustain-Cocoa project, and a PhD at MCC Berlin and Paris-Saclay Applied Economics. Valentin’s research includes econometric analyses of the drivers of tropical land use change, such as the EUDR, the US biofuel mandate policy, cocoa supply chain sustainability initiatives, or Indonesian palm oil mill-gate prices.

Title of the presentation: Cocoa expansion, food crop displacement, and forest loss in Ghana’s protected areas 

Abstract: Cocoa cultivation for export markets is a major driver of deforestation in West Africa. In response, companies and regulators have introduced sustainability policies such as zero-deforestation sourcing and the EU Deforestation Regulation. However, concerns remain that cocoa expansion displaces food crops into forest reserves, creating indirect deforestation not addressed by current policies. Here we combine spatial analysis with farmer interviews to test whether cocoa saturation outside reserves is associated with forest loss inside reserves, and whether agroforestry and sustainability programmes mitigate these effects. We find that from 2000 to 2019, higher cocoa saturation outside reserves is linked to increased food crop–driven forest loss inside reserves. In 2022–2024, cocoa saturation is again positively associated with total forest loss in reserves, while villages with greater exposure to sustainability programmes show lower loss. Agroforestry adoption was limited and showed no measurable impact. These findings highlight the need for land-use governance that addresses both direct and indirect pressures from cocoa production.

Email: valentin.guye@inrae.fr