Nelson VILLORIA

Title of the presentation: Export Competitiveness Effects of U.S. Ethanol Mandates: An Ex-Post Assessment

Abstract: The 2005 Renewable Fuel Standard and 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act mandates generated one of the largest domestic demand shocks in modern U.S. agricultural history, diverting over forty percent of the annual US corn supply to ethanol production. While regulatory assessments of these policies relied heavily on ex-ante simulation models, rigorous ex-post empirical evidence of their actual effects on international agricultural markets remains scarce. This study assesses how the U.S. ethanol mandates affected agricultural export competitiveness using a generalized event study that exploits continuous variation in ethanol production intensity. We classify agricultural exports into treated sectors directly affected through land use competition, feed substitution, or input market linkages, and control sectors with weaker connections to corn markets. Our results reveal substantial and persistent negative effects on U.S. export market shares. By 2019, the mandates reduced aggregate treated product export shares by 8-10 percentage points relative to the 2004-2007 baseline, with crop exports (wheat, corn, other cereals, and soybeans) declining 12-15 percentage points. These post-treatment effects stabilize within 3-4 years, suggesting permanent structural shifts in the US share of global crop markets. These findings suggest significant trade-offs between domestic biofuel expansion and trade competitiveness.

Email: nvilloria@ksu.edu